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Within the immense confusion following the US strikes on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – this establishes a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation saw its initial significant armed assault on the continent of South America. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.

The move to assault another sovereign country and abduct its leader – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – possesses far-reaching consequences. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will surely embolden additional military gambits.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

No one buys the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may live to repent if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.