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Only 48 hours before the NYC mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange issued a bold electoral prediction – not just the winner overall, and precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and emerged as a kind of well-known figure this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.

He published his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although missing the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. He possesses a talent for witty coinages. He highlighted, for instance, the split between the “commie corridor”, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he forecasted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters favored Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

What was your night?

I had to do that since they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the tally every few minutes! I felt somewhat anxious at the beginning: The candidate was ahead the early vote by 12 points, but there were two big batches of votes that came in later and his lead went from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, it was possible where yesterday went somewhat badly for Mamdani, where the opponent was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But Mamdani gained 500,000 votes to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his support from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that progressives long aimed for: it’s multiracial, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the earlier election. Plus he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that the left long aimed for: multiracial, young, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It is a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump last year went for Zohran now. But I wouldn’t say he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I figured it could go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3 million – that is a huge number of participants. There was a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to surpass half. He has 50.4% but remain around 200K ballots left to report at that time. Thus I don’t think it’s definitive, but I think it’s likely, and I hope he achieves it because then none can claim Sliwa was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any area. Not even one neighborhood in the borough, which is like an 88% Trump area. That really was unexpected. The independent held very white areas, affluent zones and devout communities, and then added all of these conservatives on the island who had a strong turnout. I think occurred significant strategic balloting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to the former president endorsed for the candidate, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide unless Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your often-discussed left-wing base – did backing for the candidate overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed a little dilution of the commie corridor in some areas like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the property owners and homeowners all went for Cuomo. So there existed some opposition. But overall, largely the leftist base is another huge reason why Mamdani won – he scored between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on if Mamdani was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he did?

There are neighborhoods with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance definitely mattered in those places. Similarly in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned Cuomo. And also, there are Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly Cuomo. So I don’t know if existed major surprises here, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will the commie corridor become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that key figures from progressives hail from a few areas in the boroughs. I’m sure that there will be more of that – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I think that every city in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in the nation – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the disparities exist.