Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
