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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the biggest improvement receives the award. However, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

Yet this year's race is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners falling away and recent underperformers improving together. In an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still